Bitcoin - Last Dip Before Further Summer Relief Continues?
What history and other key indicators are all pointing towards
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Is This Retest the Pivot Point?
Bitcoin is trading around the 200-week SMA (orange), and price has now Weekly Closed above it for two consecutive weeks, positioning price for a retest of the SMA into support.
So far, the retest is successful and is technically positioning price for trend continuation to the upside.
Reclaiming this level is what price needs in order to move toward the next resistance, which sits in confluence with February's lows from earlier this year and lines up with the 50-month EMA, residing around $66,000.
Right now, the level to hold is around $63,000 (200-week SMA, orange).
Holding here is what puts price into contention for a revisit of that $66,000 area.
If this level fails to hold then Bitcoin will look to develop a Daily Higher Low relative to the July Monthly Open.
History suggests that price tends to develop Higher Lows in the first half of July to set up trend continuation to the upside in the second half of July.
At the 13th of July, price sits right on the cusp of that shift.
Whether this retest holds is the pivot point of the 200-week SMA that determines whether price needs to drop into $60k for a Daily Higher Low or whether the 200-week SMA acts as sufficient support to prompt price into a more bullish second half of July.
Admittedly, this discourse is largely short-term noise; over the new few weeks price needs to find a way to extend its current relief rally and so the short-term is about trying to understand how that could potentially happen.
Mid-term however, a downside deviation below the 200-week SMA still remains the expectation, with the next two to three weeks determining simply what sort of limited relief could happen before that.
Beyond July, the expectation is a top forming around wherever price closes the month, followed by a rejection brewing across early to mid- August.
It's worth noting the SMA itself is generally an unreliable level, rarely producing a picture-perfect retest even in Bull Markets.
It functions more as an outline of Bitcoin's bargain region than a level to trade off directly.
That said, its current confluence with the lows nearby lends it slightly more weight as a tangible support.
What's missing so far is buy-side volume.
The positioning is there.
The Weekly Close above the SMA happened, and the retest was technically successful last week but with little follow-through for now.
Now it comes down to whether volume is strong enough to turn this unreliable support into a reliable one.
Could BTC enable a move to $66,000 soon or is another short-term downside deviation below the 200-week SMA up first before the more bullish half of July takes place to lead us into a typically bearish August?