Is Bitcoin On The Cusp Of A Breakdown?
Red August looms large
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Is The Summer Range Breaking Down?
Today we're looking at the Summer Range, the blue-to-blue range on the Monthly, superimposed here on the Weekly to showcase a few key things about the main resistance price is currently struggling with.
This region marks the February-March lows, and we're now seeing resistance develop here.
Over the past few weeks that resistance has produced upside-wicking Lower Highs, and candle-bodied rejections in a Lower High fashion as well.
Coupled together, that's two Lower Highs against the February-March lows, which represent the Range High.
What we have at this point in time is a confluent region of resistance, and price has most recently Weekly Closed below it.
BTC has Weekly Closed beneath the multi-week candle-bodied Lower Highs and beneath the Range High resistance in of itself.
At the moment there's been no real change in market structure, because price is still rejecting from this confluent resistance.
But the other thing to watch out for was what sort of rebound we would get from $63,238 (orange horizontal).
Because the rebounds from that level have been getting less and lesser, by just a bit, in a Lower High fashion.
What we've seen as of late is a much weaker rebound in comparison to the previous two from the orange level.
A rejection from here to revisit the orange level would be an indictment on the idea that we might be weakening as a support from this region.
And that could lead effectively to a breakdown into the lower portion of the overall Summer Range.
We're still rejecting from this Lower High, still beneath the Range High resistance.
As long as that persists, then continued stability at these highs could proceed rolling over in price as we transition into the second half of August.
Rebounds from the 200-week SMA (orange) have historically been quite aggressive in the buyback at the moving average.
But just over a week and a half ago, we got a candle-bodied close right at this 200-week SMA, maybe even slightly below it.
That sort of aggression in the buyback isn't quite as evident as it was in previous weeks.
And the rebound that has taken place here is struggling to breach these highs, or even these highs, which is evidenced by the Lower High we're consistently seeing.