Bitcoin - Preparing For Q3
What do the next few months have in store for price?
Welcome to the Rekt Capital Newsletter, a resource for investors who want to better navigate the crypto markets with the help of cutting-edge crypto research and unbiased market analysis.
Each Bounce From $60k Is Weaker Than the Last
The green $60,000 support zone has been a defining launchpad for Bitcoin across this cycle. But its potency is diminishing with each interaction.
In 2024, price bounced from this region and produced a move of over +114%.
The 2026 rally from the same zone reached $82,500, a reaction of just shy of +38%.
A meaningful move, but already a fraction of what came before.
And right now, the current bounce is barely registering. Not much buy-side reaction, no real momentum building from the level.
The pattern is clear: each rebound from $60,000 is producing less and less.
Even if Bitcoin produces a move of +12.5% from current levels, that would still be in line with the "progressively weakening support at $60k" thesis.
In fact, a +12% rebound would bring price to $66,000. Enough to tag the purple 50-month EMA, flip the February lows into a new high and in doing so, establish yet another Lower High.
That would be the entire scope of the relief. A retest of resistance, dressed up as a recovery.
If price were to overextend slightly, even with an upside wick into the higher $60,000s, the rebound would still only amount to roughly +15%. Weaker than the +38% seen earlier this year. Weaker still than the cycle before that.
This is the weakening tendency in action: the $60,000 zone producing lesser and lesser rebounds each time price returns to it.
The level isn't launching price anymore.
It's merely slowing the descent, briefly, before the next leg develops.
The 50-Month EMA Is Now Resistance
On the Monthly timeframe, two exponential moving averages tell the story of where Bitcoin stands right now.
The $66,000 purple 50-month EMA has been a defining level throughout this cycle.
Earlier this year, price liquidity-grabbed the region around it and managed to rally as high as $82,500.
That reaction was notable at the time.
What we're seeing now is something different: a weakening, a slow deterioration, price slinking beneath the level rather than bouncing from it with conviction.
That shift matters. The 50-month EMA, currently sitting at $66,000, is no longer providing the same buy-side reaction it did earlier this year.
And with June's Monthly Close positioning to close beneath it, the implication is clear: this EMA is slowly beginning its transition from support into resistance.
What happens next follows a familiar seasonal sequence.
With June likely closing red beneath the 50-month EMA, July has the makings of a green month, one that reverses toward the upside not to reclaim structure, but to perform a Post-Breakdown Retest of the 50-month EMA as new resistance.
Then August steps in to cancel July's recovery, and potentially overextend to the downside.
This is how a distribution range beneath the 50-Month EMA could develop over the Summer.
After all, four years ago, the exact same sequence played out: red June, green July, August cancellation before seeing price breakdown from it to confirm distribution to the downside.
The 2021 cycle fractal is once again the relevant reference point.
The structure throughout 2025-2026 has mirrored it closely, just in a more compressed format.
The magnitude of June's monthly candle already reflects that compression, deviating beneath the 50-month EMA to a lesser extent compared to its 2021 counterpart.
Two paths branch from here, but the Monthly Close is the decision point.
If June closes beneath the 50-month EMA, July's relief exists for one purpose: a retest into new resistance, setting up the next Lower High.
The question is where Bitcoin will Monthly Close - at which price point, to kickstart a mid-Summer move of relief.