Bitcoin - Red August Coming Soon?
Weekly structure, quarterly pressure, and what comes next
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A Look Into The Summer Range
Zooming into the Weekly, a multi-week downtrend is beginning to take shape within this Summer Range, at the Range High, reinforcing the broader Macro Downtrend Bitcoin.
Therefore every new downtrend that forms here adds to the mounting weakness, and that's exactly what's playing out: a fresh Lower High is developing, with a matching Lower High also visible across the recent upside wicks.
That Lower High is forming against a backdrop of declining buy-side volume.
Since March, buy-side participation has been fading steadily, and the most recent Weekly Close even printed seller-oriented volume, a sign that sellers are starting to step back in.
At the same time, price is deviating below the 200-week SMA (orange), a level that has historically marked Bitcoin's bottoming-out bargain region:
That deviation comes after the brand-new multi-week Lower High already flagged on the Weekly, with price downside wicking below this support rather than closing beneath it outright.
That's not an especially good sign.
The Weekly Close has held just above this SMA support for now, but over time that support looks increasingly likely to give way.
Adding to the pressure, the low from a few weeks back tells a similar story.
The purple horizontal acted as support, was lost, then reclaimed as support, only for the reclaim to produce nothing more than this new Lower High.
Losing it again would likely send price diving deeper into this range.
That level turns out to sit at $63,290 (purple horizontal), approximately confluent with the 200-week SMA.
Both are being treated as unreliable supports here, capable of holding in the short term or even flipping into resistance.
In the mid-term, though, the more likely outcome is that both get lost as price develops broader, deeper macro clusters beneath this zone.