Is Bitcoin Weakening At Resistance?
What will this Monthly Close mean for the months ahead?
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Three Resistances, One Monthly Close
On the Monthly timeframe, Bitcoin is rejecting from the Macro Downtrend (black trendline) — and at this point in time, it is probably the most hated Macro Downtrend in the market.
Plenty of people are critical of it whenever it comes up on Twitter but it's worth remembering where it came from.
This trendline was drawn in late November 2025, based simply on the price cluster that existed at the time, and then propagated into the future using the line of best fit. It has served as a pretty decent point of rejection ever since.
And that is exactly what adds credibility to it.
Bitcoin is currently hovering beneath this trendline, upside wicking beyond it, and generally rejecting from it as we speak.
For a propagated trendline first drawn in late November 2025 and never adjusted since, it has been a compelling point of reference, especially since price is rejecting from it right now.
The Macro Downtrend represents the price point of ~$79000.
But the Macro Downtrend isn't operating alone here.
This trendline happens to be confluent with the 21-Month EMA (green), which is a key resistance in its own right at this point in time. Together, the two form a confluent region of resistance that price is currently rejecting from.
And even that isn't the only supply barrier worth watching.
Over these next few hours, until the ultimate Monthly Close, it's worth seeing how price closes relative to these candle-bodied highs at $76,330 (blue horizontal).
Because if Bitcoin Monthly Closes below the Macro Downtrend, below the 20-Month EMA, and also below the blue level, that becomes a pretty compelling region of resistance.
Such a Close would solidify the read that price is rejecting not just from the trendline, not just from this EMA, but from these candle-bodied highs as well.
And that would be a pretty strong technical sign that Bitcoin is simply still rejecting at a Macro Lower High.