Will The Bitcoin Retrace Continue?
Q4 seasonal weakness repeats?
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It's Official - $82.2k Is New Resistance
Last week we spoke about how Bitcoin Weekly Closed below ~$82200 and how price was setting itself up for a bearish retest of this level to turn it from old support into new resistance.
Here is the chart from last week:
And here is today's chart:
Bitcoin upside wicked beyond the resistance of $82200 but ultimately ended up rejecting from the 3-Day Lower High resistance which we covered between editions of the newsletter on Twitter/X:
That 3-Day chart looks like this now:
And the key noteworthy observation to add here is that Bitcoin has 3-Day Closed below the previous 3-Day resistance:
Aside from developing a new Lower High (green, a sign of mounting weakness), Bitcoin has also 3-Day closed below a key major 3-Day resistance, setting itself up for a bearish retest of this level as well.
If BTC sees a rebound this week into $81400 but fails to reclaim it as support and instead rejects there, another 3-Day Lower High could develop yet again.
But going back to the Weekly...
The new Weekly Close means that price has officially broken back down into the $78.3k-$82.2k Range (blue-blue), with scope for the Range Low of that Range even extending to $76.8k which resides not too far below.
But to drop there, Bitcoin would need to first of course confirm that 3-Day weakness relative to $81400 and also confirm Weekly weakness also relative to $80300 and here's why:
$80300 represents the late August/early September candle-bodied Weekly highs (light blue) and Bitcoin has most recently Weekly Closed below them, setting up for a bearish retest of this level as well.
Generally, Bitcoin has been on a proverbial roll when it comes to losing old supports and positioning to turn them into new resistances.
And with the Mid-Terms just around the corner, this weakness could very well continue to persist.