Altcoin Market Update #141

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In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
• Aave (AAVE)
• Cronos (CRO)
• Dogecoin (DOGE)
• Injective (INJ)
• Pudgy Penguins (PENGU)

But before we dive in, this Friday I’ll chart your Altcoin picks in an exclusive subscriber-only TA newsletter and will cover as many as I can

So if you’d like to have an Altcoin charted, feel free to share max. two TA requests each in the comments below.

I’ll chart the Altcoins that get mentioned and ‘Liked’ the most

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Let's dive in to today's Altcoin Market Update.

Aerodrome Finance – AERO/USDT

Aerodrome Finance has been building out a multi-week base, and in doing so has managed to reclaim the $0.3211 (black horizontal, Range Low) to $0.4372 (black horizontal, Range High) range.

A structure discussed in prior weeks as the key recovery framework.

The thesis was straightforward: hold $0.3211, and price would have room to traverse the full width of the range.

That is now playing out.

With Weekly Closes already registering above $0.4372, the next step is a Post-Breakout Retest of that level to confirm it as new support, before any attempt to push toward $0.5110 (black horizontal, upper resistance) above.

The Monthly Close is what matters most at this stage.

A Monthly Close above $0.4372 — whether followed first by a weekly dip back into that level, or a monthly dip in May — keeps the broader path open. 

That level needs to hold on any post-breakout pullback.

If it does, a Re-Accumulation range between $0.4372 and $0.5110 becomes a realistic outcome.

But even then, the work isn't done.

A Weekly Close above $0.5110 would be needed to reclaim it as support and open the door toward the red zone overhead,  a region that has acted as a major reversal zone on multiple occasions, including earlier this year.

So the immediate focus remains on $0.4372. Can it hold as support on any post-breakout dip?

That answer — weekly or monthly — will set the tone for everything that follows.

Aave – AAVE/USDT

Aave is following a compelling fractal from 2021 with notable precision. 

The topping-out formation has played out, the rejection and breakdown circled in red have both materialised, and price is now positioned at a familiar juncture, one where $111.971 (blue horizontal) has flipped from support into resistance.

That transition mirrors the 2022 sequence almost exactly, and the rejection from $111.971 last month reinforces it further.

Price is currently finding support within the red zone (red horizontal, Macro support), but the reaction so far has not been particularly compelling.

A liquidation wick pierced into this region, and price has been attempting to stabilise here for roughly three months, without producing any meaningful strength.

For the fractal to play out fully, this red zone would need to give way and transition into resistance, much as it did in mid-2022, opening the door toward the sub-$90 region below.

To avoid that outcome, AAVE would need to reclaim $111.971 as support, a meaningful ask given that it has now rejected from there in consecutive months.

Without that reclaim, the fractal continues to point toward a breakdown from the red zone, and the path of least resistance remains to the downside.