Altcoin Newsletter #274
Features analysis on Altcoins such as ZEC PENGU NEAR HYPE TAO TIA
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In today’s Altcoin newsletter I cover the following Altcoins – specifically:
- Zcash (ZEC)
- Pudgy Penguins (PENGU)
- NEAR Protocol (NEAR)
- Hyperliquid (HYPE)
- Bittensor (TAO)
- Celestia (TIA)
These Altcoin TA requests are made by valued readers of the Rekt Capital Premium Newsletter.
Let’s dive in...
Zcash – ZEC/USDT
Back in late April, ZEC was developing a Bull Flag on the Weekly timeframe. A structure flagging the potential for a meaningful move higher.
That Bull Flag broke out, with price following through to challenge the highs from late 2025 and early 2026.
The next requirement was a Weekly Close above the $528.951 (orange horizontal, Range Low of the orange-to-orange macro range), the historical key level at the base of that broader range.
That Weekly Close arrived, the retest followed, and price has since moved back toward $695.487 (orange horizontal, Range High resistance).
The final major Weekly resistance and the $700 psychological barrier.
The key now is whether price can continue building a cluster at these levels.
If that cluster develops for longer than what played out in late 2025, that would be a positive sign. ZEC is already forming support on top of the zone that produced the Q4 rejection.
The last time price reached $700, it triggered the entire retrace.
But if the rejection this time is shallower — or if price only pulls back to $528.951 — that would represent a far weaker reaction by an order of magnitude, and would only strengthen ZEC's position.
This structure is also technically a Bull Flag, similar to the one that preceded this move. A retest of the top of that Bull Flag would confirm the breakout, reopening the path toward $695.487 once more.
In the absence of a strong rejection, price could produce a shallow retrace or attempt a Weekly Close above the highs for the first time ever, using $700 as a springboard into Price Discovery.
Pudgy Penguins – PENGU/USDT
Back in late April, PENGU had formed a Double Bottom and produced a near 1-to-1 Measured Move, rallying into the $0.010111 (red horizontal zone, macro resistance), a region also confluent with the black descending macro downtrend trendline.
That move skipped two retest milestones along the way.
But skipped levels have a habit of catching up with price later.
That's exactly what's playing out now.
Price upside wicked into the confluent resistance. The red zone and the macro downtrend and rejected quite strongly, with the psychological ~$0.01 level acting as a ceiling.
Price is now pulling back into those skipped retest milestones: $0.008380 (orange horizontal, interim support) and $0.007495 (orange horizontal, lower retest support).
A successful retest of these levels would set up another attempt at the confluent resistance above.
But the key question is whether this market is bullish enough to enable a break of the macro downtrend trendline altogether.
A Weekly Close above the red zone and above the downtrend trendline are the confirmation signals that matter. Until those arrive, skepticism is warranted.
There's also a precedent worth noting, a relief rally already failed in late Q4 2025. Could this be the same pattern repeating?
Losing the $0.010446 (blue horizontal, upper retest support) would put the orange level in focus.
Lose both, and price resynchronizes with the top of the Double Bottom, the retest milestone that was skipped on the initial move up.
That's where bullish momentum could begin to falter.
For now, the retest is in progress.
Either the blue or the orange level needs to hold to preserve bullish bias.
And going forward, let's see if a Weekly Close above the downtrend can materialise.